Keywords: Gender disparity, Functional disability, Aging, Time-series analysis, Care policy, Türkiye.

Aim:

This study aims to analyze the longitudinal evolution of gender-based trajectories in chronic morbidity and functional disability in Türkiye between 2008 and 2022. Its primary originality lies in moving beyond traditional cross-sectional descriptions to reveal, for the first time in national literature, the "Care Trap"—a structural vulnerability characterized by the widening gap between surging functional disability demand among women and the stagnant supply of informal family care. By utilizing a 14-year time-series analysis, the study seeks to identify the divergence in health outcomes and provide a robust evidence base for primary care interventions targeting the intersection of metabolic burden and geriatric frailty.

Method:

A longitudinal ecological time-series design was employed using aggregated panel data from the Türkiye Health Survey. Temporal interactions between gender and health outcomes were tested using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with an interaction term (Year x Gender). Ecological effect sizes (Cohen’s d) were calculated to assess the magnitude of disparity.

Results:

Pronounced gender disparities were observed, particularly for Hypertension (d = 6.42) and Difficulty in Bathing (d = 3.80). Interaction analysis revealed statistically significant "diverging trends" for Diabetes Mellitus (p = 0.038) and Bathing Difficulty (p = 0.019), suggesting that the gender gap is widening over time. As of 2022, women had 2.70 times higher odds of mobility limitations compared to men. Despite these rising disability rates, reliance on informal family care remained relatively static at approximately 70% throughout the study period.

Conclusions:

The health trajectory of Turkish women is deteriorating faster than that of men, creating a structural vulnerability characterized as a "Care Trap." This phenomenon occurs where rising functional demand meets a stagnant informal care supply. Policy frameworks must prioritize the professionalization of long-term care and the integration of functional capacity screening into primary care management for aging women.